A Few Mad Men: Trump’s Foreign Policy

Since taking office for the first time in 2017, Donald Trump has arguably become one of the most controversial figures in politics. Now at the helm of his second term, President Trump continues to cause ripples across the international community.

He is known for his tough negotiating strategies — though these may be characterized by his rather inflammatory or seemingly out-of-place remarks. They have a few of us wondering what exactly they mean. VALLEY sat down with Penn State’s Professor Roseanne McManus to help break down Trump’s apparently unorthodox methods.

Recent Proposals

At the start of his tenure in 2025, Trump made several proposals. He promised to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America — a proposal which Mexico’s Sheinbaum responded to with a hint of sarcasm. He proposed to purchase Greenland, seize the Panama Canal and make Canada the 51st state. These remarks left some questioning his sanity, while others reacted rightfully offended.

Now, Trump has floated the idea of taking over the Gaza Strip for potential commercial development — a revelation that caused uproar among people and governments around the world. However, experts argue that President Trump’s seemingly erratic behavior can be part of a strategy they refer to as the “madman theory.”

Method or Madness?

The madman theory is a strategy employed by leaders to appear unpredictable in order to persuade other world leaders to make concessions. The term was coined by Richard Nixon during his tenure in the 1970s. He used it to negotiate with the North Vietnamese during the Vietnam War. He wanted the North Vietnamese to know he was capable of doing anything — including the use of nuclear weapons — to bring the war to an end. He was ultimately unsuccessful.

Other prolific global leaders have cultivated a similar reputation as madmen including Saddam Hussein, Kim Jong Un and Adolf Hitler.

During his first presidency, Trump’s strategies had initially heightened tensions between the United States and North Korea. By the end of his first term, these tensions had dialed down. Trump even claimed to have fallen in love with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. The U.S. president is certainly no stranger to the madman theory. He has used this unpredictability to his favor in the past.

Does It Work?

Associate professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Roseanne McManus notes that it isn’t always immediately clear whether President Trump’s recent statements are part of this strategy or whether he is simply acting on his own impulses.

Even after Greenland and Denmark’s definitive response against the acquisition of Greenland, Rep. Earl L. Carter (R-GA) introduced a bill authorizing President Trump to acquire Greenland and renaming it Red, White, and Blueland. Professor McManus quickly pointed to the unlikelihood of this happening.

That’s the thing about the madmen theory: appearing unpredictable is key. In the past, Trump has demonstrated awareness of this, so any recent statements could simply be a way for him to lean into this reputation of unpredictability. In which case, his strategy seems to be working.

As for Trump’s statements on occupying Gaza and relocating Palestinians, they can be interpreted as a symbolic gesture. Professor McManus stated that one possibility with his statement is that he doesn’t realize that taking over Gaza wouldn’t be possible, in which case Trump’s actions would best fit the genuine madman category.

If he [Trump] realizes it’s not possible … I would see it as a way of signaling a very pro-Israeli position and anti-Hamas position.

She added that, already, his statements — even if only tentative — have pushed Jordan and Egypt to try and appease him. While neither Jordan or Egypt would be willing to take in forcibly displaced Palestinians, Trump’s suggestions have spurred the possibility of negotiations. He was able to get some concessions from Jordan. After meeting with King Abdullah II, the country agreed to take in 2,000 Palestinian children.

Diplomatic Implications

Professor McManus’ research has shown that the madman theory is unlikely to be successful. More still, there is a risk to leveraging this strategy against allies, such as Mexico and Denmark.

In dealing with adversarial countries, when the stakes are high … this could actually be useful for deterrence.

Yet, the danger remains. If a leader like Trump were to appear as too untrustworthy, any potential for cooperation between the U.S. and its adversaries would die out.

When it comes to the future of U.S. diplomacy, Professor McManus highlighted that it is difficult to really know how Trump’s policy will evolve throughout his second term. Using the madman theory when dealing with allies could lead to some negative consequences. Indeed, there is a fine line to be drawn between madness and calculated chaos.

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