Within days of relaunching an offensive, anti-Assad rebels gained rapid control of southern and northern portions of Syria. The offensive resulted in the end of Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule.
The Syrian civil war began in 2011 after a wave of Arab Spring revolts swept through the Middle East. The revolution calling for democracy evolved into an exhaustive civil war—which until now—had remained at a stalemate.
While the situation continues to change, here’s what you should know:
Information on the Offensive
Led by Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the offensive began on November 27. Starting in the north, the HTS quickly retook key cities Aleppo, Hama and Homs. In the south, other rebel groups followed suit. Met with little resistance, rebel forces entered the capital Damascus early on December 8.
Headed by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, HTS promised it would continue to protect all government international institutions—including organizations like the United Nations. The group has vowed to promote a peaceful transition of power in conjunction with Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali.
Reports indicate that rebel forces were in contact with Syrian army officials and personnel looking to defect. Lack of support from the military spelled a different result from the 2011 uprisings; unlike the 2011 revolution, little support from the Syrian army means that Assad lost the backing of many of his closest supporters. This ultimately weakened the response of pro-Assad forces. Assad fled the country and was granted asylum by Russia.
Syria’s Civil War
Met with tough government crackdowns, Syria’s Arab Spring protests in 2011 evolved into a long-winded civil war. Assad’s regime was accused of using chemical weapons against its citizens. The conflict killed over 600,000 people. To date, the civil war has internally displaced 6.8 million people and created a crisis of 5.2 million refugees.
As the country plummeted into conflict, insurgent groups began to emerge. The Islamic State (IS) fought the regime for control of the country. Countries like Russia and Turkey were also drawn into the conflict, with each supporting a different side.
What This Means for the Region
Neighboring countries, Turkey and Israel, hold stakes in the region. The fall of Assad’s regime will either further destabilize the region or mark the beginning of a new era. For their part, the United States has communicated that it will maintain its presence in the country to prevent the resurgence of the IS. Countries like Russia and Iran have also been key to recent developments.
Analysts point to the role of Russia and Iran in facilitating the success of the offensive. While supportive of Assad’s regime, Russia has been focused on its war in Ukraine. On the other hand, Iran has shifted much of its attention to Hezbollah and the Israel-Hamas war. Experts argue that this distraction allowed the lightning-quick offensive to flourish with such shocking force.
A smooth and peaceful transition of power is essential, though the possibility of this under the direction of Islamist factions has been met with skepticism. Syrian rebels vowed to protect and respect all of Syria’s many diverse ethnic and religious groups. Whether these promises will be fulfilled remains to be seen.
In the meantime, there is hope that the end of Assad’s regime will bring some semblance of peace to the country.
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